The Importance of Naturalness in Blackjack

A natural is a two card hand that totals 21. There is only one way for this to happen - you must get an ace as one of your first two cards and the second card must be worth 10 points. 카지노사이트

A natural is also called blackjack, but since the name of the game is blackjack, it is often easier to write about the game as "natural" to avoid confusion.

But the importance of this particular hand cannot be understated and in this post I will look at why natural plays are so important in blackjack.

The main reason the natural is so important is that it results in a 3:2 payout instead of an even money payout. In other words, if you bet $200 on a hand and get a natural, you get paid $300 instead of paying $200.

This changes everything, and you'll find out why below.

The concept of expectation in blackjack

It is good to understand the odds of winning blackjack. It's a lucky event, but decision-wise there's nothing you can do to increase your odds of getting a blackjack. Either you get two cards for a total of 21, or you get a different total.

A simplified explanation of expectations in blackjack

In blackjack, a simplified view of expectation looks at the probability of the following events:

Loss

Victorious

Getting natural

PUSH

When you lose, you lose any bet you place. For example, bet $200 on blackjack and bust and the casino dealer takes your $200.

When you win, you get even money, except for the natural one. In other words, if you bet $200, you keep your $200 and get $200 in winnings.

When you get a natural, you get paid 3:2 - that's the same as getting $300 on a $200 bet.

In the case of a tie, you are said to be "pushing". In this case, you won't lose your bet, but you won't get any winnings either.

A simplified view of your expectations, assuming a perfectly fair game, might look like this:

45% chance of losing $200 (that's -$90.)

45% chance to win $200 (that's +$90.)

5% chance to win $300 (that's +$15.)

5% chance to win/lose $0. (That's $0.)

In such a game, your advantage would be huge.

But the dealer forces you to play first, and if you fold, the dealer wins, even if the dealer folds later. This changes the percentages in such a way that the bonus payout for the natural is still not enough to give you an advantage over the casino. 온라인카지노 

All the examples I've given so far have offered imaginary numbers to make something like calculating odds easy to understand. You don't really have a 45% chance of winning or losing; your odds of winning are actually lower. Even a 5% chance of winning blackjack is just an estimate.

The probability of being dealt a natural in Blackjack

What is the actual probability that it will be natural?

It's actually not a complicated formula.

First, you look at the probability of getting an ace as your first card. Since you have 4 aces in a deck of 52 cards, the probability is 4/52 or 1/13.

To get a blackjack, you must also get a 10 card as your next card. You have 16 cards in your deck that have a value of 10, so the probability is 16/51. (Note that the denominator has changed because one of the aces is already counted.)

But you can also get a 10 as your first card, in which case you have to get an ace as your next card. The same formula applies but in reverse and you add the two probabilities together and you get 2 in 41.44 which is the same as 1 in 20.72.

Dealers also get blackjack

But we also have to consider how often the dealer gets blackjack. This formula isn't complicated either, although we now have to adjust to the cards that have already been dealt. The probability that the dealer will receive a 10 as the next card is 15/49. 3/50 X 15/49 = 45/2450 which is equal to 1 in 54.44 or 1.84%.

Double that to account for the possibility of getting a 10 as your first card and an ace as your second card, and it's easy to see that the push probability of you and the dealer both getting a natural is 3.68%. This is approximately the same as 1 in 27.22.

This means that for every 27 or so blackjacks you're dealt, the dealer will also get a blackjack, resulting in a push. 안전한카지노사이트